Booster for business investment needed to sustain the recovery & unleash UK’s potential – CBI economic forecast

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The foundations for the UK’s economic recovery remain firm despite global supply challenges weighing on growth in the near-term, according to the latest CBI economic forecast. However, short-term headwinds – including rising costs and shortages – have grown since the business group’s previous forecast in June. Longer-term challenges, notably persistently poor productivity, underline the need for a booster for business investment to support sustainable growth. The CBI is forecasting 6.9% growth in GDP over 2021 and 5.1% in 2022, revised down from 8.2% and 6.1% respectively. It should be noted that this largely reflects weaker than expected outturn data since the CBI’s previous forecast. The business group’s forecast expects supply chain frictions to largely dissipate by the middle of next year. Earlier in the Autumn, the Government formed the supply chain advisory group to grip these issues. Overall, household spending remains the key driver of GDP growth, generating 90% of growth in 2022, and two-thirds in 2023. This is supported by a further improvement in real income, and households running down excess savings accumulated during the pandemic. The resilience of the UK’s labour market has been a real success story, thanks largely to the Government’s Job Retention Scheme, which helped stave off potentially large-scale job losses. Continued employment growth over the next couple of years also supports household spending. Business investment appetite has recovered somewhat and, spurred by continual economic growth, it rises briefly above its pre-pandemic level at the end of 2022 (growing by 8.2% over the year as a whole). However, this recovery is short-lived, with capital spending falling from mid-2023, as the super-deduction comes to an end and the rise in corporation tax kicks in. As a result, business investment will continue to lag other advanced economies. The recovery in exports is also expected to be lacklustre, following disappointing growth over this year so far. The forecast predicts CPI inflation to peak at 5.2% in April next year. It is set to remain above the Bank of England’s 2% target until Spring 2023, which will hit pay packets and offsets some of the positive underpins to consumer spending. Tony Danker, CBI Director-General, said: “The challenge for January 1st is now very clear for the UK economy. Significant headwinds and rising costs of living threaten the extent of recovery and prospects for economic success. These hurdles for firms will provide a major test for Government – can they foster sustainable UK investment and growth? “The UK’s New Year resolution must be to give firms the confidence to go for growth. We should be raising our sights on the economy’s potential and seizing the moment. “I know from speaking with firms of all sizes that they have an ambitious investment mindset, and are anxious to implement growth plans. “But while intentions have thawed, we’re coming up to a cliff-edge in 2023. The super-deduction is a welcome catalyst, but a one-hit wonder isn’t enough to make up for four decades of underperforming business investment. We must build on its success with targeted measures encouraging the scale of investment we need, particularly in green technologies. A booster for growth is needed to protect and build on our recovery. “But this isn’t just a challenge for government. It’s also up to businesses to step up and be part of the solution. Investment in technology and skills are among the most important steps firms can take now that will power productivity growth. “Government has key levers at its disposal to back business: pro-investment and pro-innovation regulation to help build new markets, a competitive tax regime that incentivises business investment across the board and new market-making interventions, for example on clean energy. Getting this mix right will pay dividends over the longer term, jumpstarting the UK’s flatlining productivity and set us on course for a brighter new year.” Rain Newton-Smith, CBI Chief Economist, said: “We expect a pretty firm economic recovery ahead, though understandably the emergence of Omicron poses another downside risk to our forecast. “Ultimately this underscores the need for equitable distribution of vaccines across the world – supporting lives, livelihoods and freeing our international travel sector, boosting trade too. The emphasis must be on testing and using all the tools at our disposal to keep as many global routes open as possible. “Increasing exports is also a vital component of sustainable growth. Exporting companies are more productive, resilient and help create internationally competitive UK regions. “Let us be candid: UK exports are being outpaced by our global peers which, if allowed to continue, will negatively impact our economy in the long term. “We must continue to address market access barriers globally while supporting all businesses to seek growth internationally. “The export strategy is a positive step forward with the extension of the new Export Support Service, and a welcome focus on the UK’s world-beating services sector. We now need to follow through on delivery. “And there’s more we can do at home, too. By matching our peers on R&D spending we can build on existing UK strengths in areas like life sciences, higher education and decarbonisation to become the science superpower we all want to see. “But let’s not forget the importance of normalising relations with the EU – our biggest and nearest trading partner – which will aid cooperation in a host of other areas.” Key forecast data: Jobs and household spending
  • Household spending is set to increase by 7.6% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023 as real incomes recover, and employment growth strengthens
  • Recovery in the labour market continues with early data indicating only a minimal impact on jobless numbers following the end of the Job Retention Scheme.
  • The CBI expect a relatively short-lived rise in jobless numbers at the end of this year, after which unemployment falls back steadily, ending the CBI’s forecast (3.8%) at its pre-COVID level.
  • However, CPI inflation is expected to pick up further ahead, peaking at over 5.2% in April 2022 – driven by a combination of base effects from 2020, rises in Ofgem’s energy price cap, higher fuel prices and supply chain pressures. This will hit living standards, with real wages set to fall year-on-year for much of 2022.
Long-term outlook
  • Business investment continues to recover over the coming year, rising briefly above its pre-pandemic level by 2022. However, it then falls from mid-2023 and ends the CBI’s forecast 3% below its pre-COVID level at the end of that year
  • At the end of 2023, the CBI expect GDP to still be 3% below its pre-COVID trend.
  • Poor productivity persists over the CBI’s forecast: despite the recovery over the next few years, output per worker remains 17% below its pre-2008 trend at the end of 2023
Global outlook
  • With the recovery in UK exports lacklustre in the CBI’s forecast, and imports growth kicking off on a stronger footing, the CBI do not expect any support to GDP from net trade.
  • The CBI expect global GDP growth (in purchasing power parity terms) at 5.7% in 2021, 4.7% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023. Most of the economies that the CBI forecast are set to surpass their pre-pandemic levels of GDP at the end of 2022.
  • But the global recovery is also likely to be very skewed, with emerging economies lagging behind, due to slower vaccine rollouts and limited space for policy support.

Mayor of South Yorkshire, Dan Jarvis, Opens Magtec’s New Facility

The Mayor of South Yorkshire Dan Jarvis has officially opened Magtec’s new facility for the design, manufacture and installation of drive systems for electric and hybrid vehicles. The Labour MP for Barnsley Central and former British Army officer met with directors, engineers, apprentices and ex-services personnel employed by the high-growth company and toured the high-tech production facilities. Magtec is creating at least 50 new high-skilled engineering and support function jobs to help meet growing demand for its world-leading drive systems. The privately-owned company is targeting sales of £30m next year, more than double the turnover of 2021. It currently employs 145 people at its 65,000 sq ft facility in Rotherham and is recruiting across all engineering and operations disciplines. Magtec is increasing production for existing and new customers in the commercial vehicle, rail, defence and special project sectors. Orders include drive systems for electric refuse collection vehicles, autonomous and connected electric trucks and the rail industry’s first conversion of diesel multiple units. Magtec is also supporting the British Army TD6 programme to assess the benefits that hybrid military vehicles can bring to the battlefield of the future. Dan Jarvis, Mayor of South Yorkshire said: “I was very impressed by Magtec’s new facility and it was a real privilege to meet their highly talented team and learn more about the hugely innovative and highly skilled work they are doing to bring forward technical solutions to the challenges we face in delivering decarbonisation. “Forward-thinking companies such as Magtec are at the absolute cutting-edge of the next industrial revolution, of which our region can be a driving force. I am looking forward to seeing Magtec grow further over the coming years and I am certain that their pioneering technology will help to shape our region’s electrical transport infrastructure, contribute massively towards our net-zero carbon targets and continue to create skilled jobs for South Yorkshire. They are a massive asset for the region.”   Andrew Gilligan, Managing Director of Magtec said: “We were delighted to welcome Mayor Dan Jarvis to our state-of-the-art facility, introduce him to our growing team and share details of our future expansion plans. Magtec is investing in new plant and people to help us scale up and fulfil our potential. Our market-leading technology, which is designed and manufactured by highly skilled engineers here in South Yorkshire, can drive the decarbonisation of the global transportation sector.”  

2022 Business Predictions: Dr Edward Ziff, Chairman and Chief Executive of Town Centre Securities PLC

It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.  It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years. Here we speak to Dr Edward Ziff, Chairman and Chief Executive of Town Centre Securities PLC, the property developer and car parking operator. One of my predictions last year was that we hoped that the general public would return to the high street to support local and national businesses and for us to see a return to normality as soon as possible. Whilst we are still a far cry away from ‘normal’, it is encouraging to see the high street opening with many of our hospitality tenants flourishing as customers crave an experience finally outside of their own homes. With this in mind, the government, local authorities, local employers and large organisations all have a responsibility to encourage their staff to safely return to the office to fill our public transport, our shops, restaurants and coffee shops and encourage the collaboration and innovation that fuels our growth and builds our future. Town Centre Securities remain committed to our strategy and will continue to actively manage our assets, sell certain retail assets to maximise our available capital, invest in our development pipeline and acquire assets to improve our portfolio. COVID-19 of course remains the big risk as any further lockdowns would create further damage, and the need for the Government to communicate its plans clearly in advance is crucial. I am confident that our focus on the two growing and exciting cities of Leeds and Manchester, where we are helping to create a sense of place and purpose for living and working, will enable us to generate value for all our stakeholders as the world returns to normality. As we take further steps towards returning to normal life, I wish everyone the very best for 2022.

Small firms sound alarm as £60bn EU import checks close in

With only one month to go until the first working day on which full import controls for EU goods will apply, a UK business group is flagging a lack of capacity among small businesses to handle new paperwork. Currently, full customs declarations for EU goods can be deferred at the point of arrival. From this coming 1 January, however, paperwork will have to be handled up front, and notice of food, drink and products of animal origin imports given in advance. With fewer than five weeks left to prepare for the changes, new Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) research shows that only one in four (25%) small importers who are impacted by the changes, and aware of them, are ready for them to take effect. One in eight (16%) of the importers surveyed by the group say they are unable to prepare for the introduction of checks in the current climate, and a third (33%) say they were unaware of their introduction prior to the FSB study, but will be affected by them. Latest figures from the ONS show total imports to the UK from the EU rose 2.2% to £57.7bn in Q3 2021. The UK’s total trade deficit widened to -£39.9 billion over the same period. FSB Development Manager, Natalie Gasson-McKinley, said: “Given the turmoil of the past 18 months, new concerns about the spread of Covid, and this being the busiest time of year for many, it’s understandable that few firms are fully prepared for the introduction of import controls from January. “What we’re saying to firms is: there’s still time to act. Speak to suppliers to ensure you have all you need to make declarations, consider alternative providers if that looks like an efficient way forward, and think about different transportation routes. “Stockpiling will naturally be a temptation for those fortunate enough to have the funds for it, but there is already a squeeze on warehousing space – if everyone ramps up storage, that squeeze will only tighten. “We’re urging the government to do all it can to raise awareness, with our support, through every channel available to it in a climate where a lot of small firms simply don’t have the cash or bandwidth to manage this new red tape. “Too little support was made possible by the first iteration of the SME Brexit Support Fund due to narrow eligibility criteria and application timeframes. Policymakers should learn lessons from that process and launch a new fund, with the same aim of helping existing international businesses with growing admin, and inspiring new ones, but with a truly global focus. “We’ve recently had the very welcome launch of the Export Support Service. What we need now, as these stark figures demonstrate, is an Import Support Service to empower firms with the guidance and information they require to successfully navigate global trade as it evolves.”

Work to transform heart of Grimsby given boost

Plans to transform the heart of Grimsby have been given a boost with the appointment of a specialist development management organisation to lead the project. Queensberry, a nationally recognised regeneration specialist has been brought on board to drive the “Future High Streets” town centre project forward which will create a mixed use cinema and leisure space and a new market in the centre of Grimsby. Queensberry will coordinate the whole project, from overseeing the work to progressing planning applications, developing the business plans, through to the construction of the new facilities. Queensberry has been working in partnership with local authority clients for over 10 years. They are currently working on a number of urban regeneration schemes that are transforming places including Barnsley, Sheffield, Doncaster, Nuneaton as well as several in London. Cllr Callum Procter, Cabinet member for Economic Growth at North East Lincolnshire Council, said: “I’m delighted to have Queensberry on board to help us really push on with our plans to transform the heart of the town and build on the great work that’s already been done at St James’ Square and Garth Lane.” Charlotte Dunlop, Asset Manager at Capreon, the asset managers for Freshney Place, said: “With their vision, knowledge, and extensive credentials, we are confident Queensberry will drive the successful delivery of this exciting town centre project.” Paul Sargent, CEO, Queensberry, said: “We can’t wait to get started on the scheme with Freshney Place and the Council. We have a huge amount of experience of working with local authorities and understand the challenges that lay ahead. We recognise that Grimsby has its own personality and we will work closely with the Council and the community to restore civic pride and deliver a sustainable long term future for the town.” This decision means that the Council, in partnership with town centre regeneration specialist, Queensberry, will now progress to the design and consultation phase, with plans to consult local residents and businesses to be announced in the coming weeks. Earlier this year, the government awarded £17.3 million for the Future High Streets Fund bid from the Council and the owners of Freshney Place Shopping Centre. The project will provide a leisure-led scheme for the centre of Grimsby town which incorporates a new market and food hall alongside new leisure and retail units and a new cinema. The overall aim of the project is to provide a new space for people to enjoy the town centre’s day and evening economy. The scheme will be delivered through the removal of some of the 1960s and 1970s buildings and retail space at the western end of Freshney Place.

How can business directors expand their companies in 2022

Most entrepreneurs dream of growing their businesses from strength to strength. Of course, trajectories of success can vary wildly. Many companies have been focused more on survival than earnest growth recently. However, it’s to be hoped that 2022 will yield more optimism. Consumers are itching to spend, and many sectors will be keen to grasp every opportunity possible to make up for all the lost time. A strategic expansion could be well-timed here. Nevertheless, if you’re a company director, you’ll still need to go about things reasonably. You’ll find some ideas that are worth contemplating further after the jump.   Developing a New Building Many businesses have gone fully remote or undertaken some form of hybrid working. Therefore, if you’re going to operate within a workplace, it should be a magnificent statement about what your firm is capable of. Developing a new building for your business could give you more space to work in, situate you somewhere more exciting, and generally revitalise your company. Even the building architecture can send a powerful message about your firm’s significance and stature. Building your own state-of-the-art commercial property will allow you to create a uniquely mesmerising base too. To maintain the best standards possible, working with expert design building services is crucial. Innovative companies like Arup bring greener futures to all of their building developments, improving your reputation. They will collaborate with you closely to ensure all of your needs are met and strive to deliver cutting edge scientific and industrial facilities.   Doubling Down on Delivery Online shopping reached new heights of popularity during the pandemic. Moreover, these consumer demands aren’t set to fade away any time soon. Still, while businesses found success here, things didn’t always go to plan. A common complaint in 2020 was that deliveries sometimes arrived late or went missing entirely. The logistics here are tough to straighten out, and not every firm can make things work here, overpromising instead of (literally) delivering. Therefore, it’s a good idea to improve your delivery methods while your competitors either refuse or fail to do so. Expand your vehicle fleet and hire more drivers. Alternatively, you could hire a courier service to handle certain orders as well. Remember, there are lots of customers who won’t trade with a business again if their delivery is compromised in any way, so getting things right is vital.   Flourishing in Digital Marketing Even with an impressive business premises and a capable delivery system in place, it all needs to be advertised clearly. Digital marketing can play an instrumental role in making that happen. You can recruit talented staff for your efforts in search engine optimisation, pay per click advertising, and a host of other digital marketing related efforts. Additional hires in things like video production and content writing may also be prudent, giving your customers something exciting to engage with online. If you feel too much pressure here, a digital marketing agency could alleviate some of the stress. That way, you can be sure as many people are seeing your business as possible while you attend to other matters. Digital marketing has helped many enterprises survive the pandemic, but in 2022, it could help yours thrive.

Common issues small businesses face and how to tackle them

Small businesses are something that many people strive for. Owning your own company and building it from the ground up is certainly something to be proud of! Much like when managing any significant project in life, small business owners face a whole host of obstacles in their lifetime, some tricker than others. For the most part, they are easy to overcome, but other obstacles are a bit more challenging. Interested in finding out more about these common issues and what you can do to tackle or avoid them yourselves? Read on for more. Financial Issues This is a suggestion we feel confident most people reading this and beyond have experienced at some point or another. Particularly when you consider the financial implications of the pandemic, this is an obstacle that many small businesses have had to endure. Financial issues relating to small businesses do not just include the money generated by the sale of products and services but also extend to include the likes of the money spent to run a company. Monitoring the income and outgoings of your business and tightening your belt wherever necessary will help to overcome this. Assess whether you are overspending in areas of your business and whether there are cheaper options for doing something. Human Resources (HR) HR is a significant part of your business and has an impact on the day-to-day running whether you realise it or not. As is to be expected from such a significant part of your company, you will be faced with a wide variety of obstacles and issues. Administration in some form eats into your precious time and inefficiency is something we are all guilty of from time to time. Having an inefficient workforce, including yourself, is what you want to avoid as much as you can. While you might feel uncertain about how to go about something like this, you are not out of ideas; there is a significant range of performance management tools out there, which can be used to tackle a whole host of HR-related issues. Build an efficient workforce using this management software, and rest assured you will be doing what you can for the well-being of your employees and your business as a whole. Uncertain Business Landscapes This is not usually something that would have to be considered, but following the uncertainty of the last eighteen months, we felt it was worth a mention all the same. Businesses big and small have all been impacted by the pandemic in some way or another, and there have been several uncontrollable factors cropping up. The ever-changing business landscape is something that impacts businesses and is often something that can be hard to predict. While nothing stops you from estimating what could be happening in the future, you seldom are accurate in your estimations, especially if there are other factors to account for, like a pandemic, for example. That being said, monitoring your own success, keeping an eye on what competitors are doing, and remaining flexible in your approach are all key suggestions for ensuring your current and ongoing success.

Mayor says South Yorkshire losing out on £900m in regional funding

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Along with South Yorkshire council leaders and local MPs, Mayor Dan Jarvis has written to Michael Gove, the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, to demand that South Yorkshire get its fair share of regional funding for regeneration and economic growth. Recent analysis has shown the funding would equate to more than £900m in investment in South Yorkshire over seven years. The intervention comes after the government committed to match former EU funding for Cornwall, but not other English regions with similar rates of deprivation, including South Yorkshire. Mayor Dan Jarvis said: “I am not asking for special treatment for South Yorkshire, just that we get our fair share. “From next year, South Yorkshire would have got hundreds of millions of pounds more from EU funding, had that still been in place. The Prime Minister promised places like South Yorkshire would not lose out after Brexit. We are asking him to keep his word. “We have plans to build a stronger, greener and fairer economy, and we have proven we can deliver – we just need the right tools to do the job. The government should extend its commitment to funding all regions who now meet the criteria for increased funding, including South Yorkshire.” After Brexit, the government committed to match EU funds for less developed communities through its UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF). Cornwall is due to receive this funding in recognition of its rates of deprivation, but it’s emerged a number of other regions, including South Yorkshire, should qualify. The Autumn Statement stated that: “The Budget and Spending Review reaffirms that total funding through the UKSPF will at a minimum match the size of EU Funds in each nation and in Cornwall, each year.” As the only area of England to have been defined as a ‘less developed region’ in the 2014-2020 ESIF programme, Cornwall had a GDP per head below 75% of the EU average. However, research by the Industrial Communities Alliance (ICA) illustrates that after 2020, Tees Valley and Durham, South Yorkshire, and Lincolnshire all now fall below this threshold, with South Yorkshire’s GDP per head (70.3% of the UK average) being lower than Cornwall’s (70.9%).

Boost for Brighouse moves a step closer as funds released for town centre revitalisation

The first share of the £19.1 million awarded to Brighouse through the Government’s Towns Fund is now being put to work to help revitalise the town centre. In summer 2021, the Government announced that the Brighouse Town Deal Board had been successful in its bid to the Towns Fund for projects over the next four years. The first part of the £19.1 million grant is now being released, meaning Calderdale Council, working alongside the Town Deal Board, can appoint a professional team to take the project proposals to the next stage of development. The projects will build on Brighouse’s unique events, compact town centre, good accessibility and range of independent shops. To move forward, full business cases are needed by June 2022 for each of the projects that are part of the Towns Fund package: transforming key public spaces including the canal side and Thornton Square; making it easier and more pleasant to get around the town centre and to local shops and businesses; creating spaces for events and for people to meet; boosting walking and cycling facilities; transforming the market and improving local training to build skills, particularly in manufacturing and green technology. A professional team will be appointed to work on the business cases after a six-week tender process, which is expected to start before Christmas. The Brighouse Town Deal Board’s regeneration work is already having an impact, with the completion of new ‘parklets’ in Brighouse town centre in summer 2021. These new pedestrian areas with benches, plants and trees have transformed parts of the town into community spaces for people to stop, rest and enjoy whilst shopping. They were funded by the £750,000 boost from the Government’s initial accelerated funding in 2020 for all areas working towards a Town Deal. Cllr Sophie Whittaker, co-chair of the Brighouse Town Deal Board, said: “After the fantastic grant news this summer, we’re eager to get started on making a difference in Brighouse. This is already a town with a strong, distinctive identity and sense of community. We believe the proposed improvements will build on its vitality and help it to recover from the pandemic and thrive. It will be an even more special place to spend time, shop, enjoy heritage, socialise, walk and cycle.” David Whitehead, co-chair of Brighouse Town Deal Board, added: “The funds that have been provided by the Government will be put to good use to revitalise the town centre, improving the shopping experience, and hopefully leading to increased visitor numbers to the area. This should impact and benefit the local economy, encouraging even more independent and quality retailers to invest in the town centre.” Cllr Jane Scullion, Calderdale Council’s Cabinet Member for Regeneration and Strategy, said: “Building vibrant, sustainable towns is an important part of our work to support local places and businesses as we continue with our inclusive economic recovery. We also want people to have hope for the future and to enjoy their local area. The initial release of money from the Towns Fund is a key milestone for Brighouse and its people, marking the start of an exciting period of regeneration.” The Towns Fund proposals are part of the Vision Masterplan for Brighouse town centre, which provides the framework for its future regeneration.

Society gives colleagues early Christmas gift

Yorkshire Building Society is giving all its colleagues an early Christmas gift this year with an extra day off for Christmas Eve. As Christmas Eve (24 December) falls on a Friday this year, it means that colleagues will receive a full five-day break over the festive season as they will return to work on Wednesday 29 December. It also means customers will need to plan ahead if they need to contact the Society around this time as the Society’s branches and call centres will be closed during these dates. Customers that are registered for online account management will be unaffected by this announcement. This is the second year that the Society has given colleagues Christmas Eve off and recognises the immense challenges of the last two years where its staff have gone above and beyond in their roles. As key workers they have kept the vast majority of branches open throughout the pandemic and call centres have remained open to provide essential financial services to customers. 1,400 staff also switched from office to home-working. Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the Society has focused on supporting its customers and colleagues. It has prioritised keeping members in their homes, ensuring their savings are safe and looking after colleagues’ health and wellbeing. Stephen White, Interim Chief Executive of Yorkshire Building Society, said: “We wanted to do something that recognised the extraordinary couple of years that our colleagues have been through, and hope that by giving colleagues Christmas Eve off again this year and providing an extended break to relax and spend time with family at home shows in part my immense gratitude to them. “Since March last year, our response to Covid-19 has been to focus on the key priorities of keeping members in their homes, making sure their savings are secure and accessible, and looking after our colleagues’ safety and wellbeing. Without the massive efforts of our colleagues none of this would have been possible. I also hope customers understand why we have made this decision to recognise our colleagues in this way after this unprecedented year.” The mutual has also offered colleagues unlimited dependents and carers leave at full pay and anyone who is shielding, unwell or needs to self-isolate and cannot work from home qualifies for paid sick leave at their full salary.