The Yorkshire region fares well in the retail sector with both Leeds and Sheffield ranked in the UK’s top 10 growth cities according to CBRE’s latest research report ‘Which City? Which Sector? Real Estate Prospects over the Next Decade’. Leeds is ranked fourth in the retail sector with Sheffield positioned eighth.
CBRE examined the growth prospects for 12 real estate sectors across the 50 largest regional towns and cities in the UK. Findings were informed by economic drivers (including GDP, employment and income growth), demographic trends and property market data such as supply pipeline, local universities and housing affordability. The top 10 performing cities and growth sectors were identified.
Ram Rasiah, senior director, CBRE said: “It’s great to see two Yorkshire cities in the top 10 list. Retail continues to adapt to changing consumer habits and repositioning the role of the store. Within this, the polarized performance of retail locations is becoming increasingly apparent. While small, local destinations continue to remain relevant through their convenience and regional schemes benefit from their critical mass, the performance of mid-sized locations has been more challenged.
“In contrast, larger locations deliver a greater catchment potential. And aligning these trends, population and expected population growth were among the metrics used in our analysis. Birmingham ranks strongest in this measure, followed by Leeds and Glasgow,” continued Rasiah.
Birmingham took the top spot for retail followed by Bristol and Manchester respectively.
Retail performance is not only driven by scale. CBRE’s research has shown that affluent cities see healthier property performance, have lower vacancy rates and experience higher rental and capital value growth. A review of average household incomes ranks Sheffield highly versus other locations. A comparison of cities highlights Bristol and Manchester with the strongest growth potential.
In addition, a critical driver of a retail location’s performance is the balance of supply and demand. Allowing for a shift of some spend online, CBRE estimates that the volume of retail floor space in the UK will need to decrease by 16% to reach average sales densities of 2015-2020. Ranking cities by floorspace per capita and a review of vacancy rate data, gives an indication of potential oversupply in locations. The majority of the top ten potential growth cities identified have a lower retail floor space per capita than the sample average, with Sheffield and Bristol in the strongest position.
Leeds ranked sixth in the office sector with Sheffield taking the eighth position for growth cities. Manchester, Bristol and Birmingham placed as the top three growth cities in this sector.
Alex Hailey, senior director in CBRE’s Office Agency team in Leeds, said: “It’s great to see both Leeds and Sheffield identified in the top 10 growth cities. The role of the office has changed over time to align with occupier requirements, as the way we use offices evolves. The movement from cellular offices to flexible and agile formats has reduced the average space requirements per employee and hybrid working is challenging historic working norms.
“Occupiers focusing on talent attraction and retention are considering a range of flexible, amenity-rich spaces to curate the optimum user experience. But in tandem with these trends, demand for office space ultimately continues to be driven by the wider economic environment. Economic and demographic factors are fundamental when identifying key growth markets for office real estate.
“The size of the talent pool is a key factor used in forecasting office demand, with growth in those of working age and populations with qualifications at or above Level 4, could indicate the potential for employment growth by office-based sectors,” continued Hailey.
Supply factors are also key when considering a market’s ability to support future demand. In the flight to quality office space, CBRE expects pre-letting of development space to continue. 29% of space under construction is already pre-let or under offer in eight of the top ten markets where CBRE tracks pipeline data.
Sheffield placed third behind Manchester and Bristol in the urban logistics sector with Leeds ranked ninth.
As supply chains diversify to keep up with accelerated online retail activity and consumer expectations, increased demand is being placed on smaller prime urban logistics facilities located in the UK’s major metropolitan areas. These provide more agile warehouses, accommodate numerous delivery vehicles, increase cost efficiencies and shorten delivery times for end consumers.
Online shopping is a major driver in the demand for urban logistics space and the report has identified locations with a high online penetration percentage, access to high-speed internet and a forecasted growth in population of age groups with a high online spend propensity. Sheffield, Manchester and Bristol ranked highly in the growth of 34-49 year olds at 13.52%, 10.63% and 9.86% respectively.
Sheffield also ranked fifth in the Single Family Housing sector with Manchester, Birmingham and Bristol taking the top spots. Sheffield has the most affordable rental market for houses in CBRE’s top five – the average rent for a house accounts for 37% of a single local income.
Jennet Siebrits, UK head of Research at CBRE, said: “Leeds, which has one of the most diverse economies in the UK, ranked particularly well in the office and retail sectors and Sheffield was ranked among the highest cities respectively for projected growth in the urban logistics sector, which has undergone a period of supply chain diversification to keep up with accelerated online retail activity and consumer expectations since the pandemic.
“The way towns and cities evolve is very much reflective of their local geographies, natural resources and cultural history. As a result, no two UK cities are the same and subsequently, different real estate sectors thrive in different locations. Real estate professionals need to be mindful of these differences to help inform their future strategies.”
