It’s that time of year, when Business Link Magazine invites the region’s business leaders to offer up their predictions for the year ahead.
It has become something of a tradition, given that we’ve been doing this now for over 30 years.
Here we speak to Konrad Czajka, Managing Director of Czajka Care Group.
Predictions in the social care sector for 2023 are very difficult at this time. The last year has been unprecedented, with several Government announcements, which were later rescinded.
The Government trying to steady the economic turmoil has postponed social care reforms. What we need in 2023 is a clear and long-term policy for the social care sector, specifically on pay and conditions for the social care workforce.
Staff turnover rates within care roles are currently 29% and we expect these to remain high, with 165,000 vacancies. Average vacancy rates of 11%, which is twice the national average, will also continue. We are going to need 480,000 extra people working in social care by 2035!
The Government will have to release the £500m committed for skills and learning in the workforce as highlighted in the ‘people at the heart of care’ white paper. The Government has also made £500m available to support discharge from hospital into the community and bolster the workforce this winter, but this money has still to reach the frontline services, hopefully next year it will!
In 2023 hopefully we will see more staff from overseas join the social care workforce as the Government has added care workers to the shortage occupation list which is a positive. However, the increasing cost of living is likely to have an impact, resulting in more staff leaving care services for better paid work.
The increasing staff and operating costs and the lack of full recovery in care home occupancy will lead to a significant reduction of profits. Some providers will hold empty beds because they will not be able to staff their care homes.
To summarise on these issues, 2023 will see a lack of staff, rising costs and fluctuating profit margins. However, on a positive note some areas of the UK, particularly the North West and the South West, have seen nursing care rates for self-funded residents increase by 15.9% and 14.1% respectively.
Next year we expect some outcomes to the national cost of care exercise undertaken in 2022, and this will identify how the cross subsidies from self-funders are keeping providers profitable in many parts of the country.
In 2023, and over the next decade, the UK needs to adapt to the far-reaching changes to society caused by an ageing population. The growth in older people far outstrips the growth in age-appropriate housing, so a fundamental change is needed in how we provide care and housing to those in their later years.
Housing with care settings, like integrated retirement communities, will have a pivotal role to play, owing to the positive impact they have on health, wellbeing, and reducing the burden on the NHS. Analysis has revealed a shortfall of 487,000 plus retirement units across the UK – so let’s get building!
